The original prediction
In an article for Electronics magazine, Moore estimated that the number of components on a chip would double every year. In 1975 he revised it to every two years. Chipmakers then treated it as a target they had to hit.
Numbers
| Chip | Year | Transistors |
|---|---|---|
| Intel 4004 | 1971 | 2,300 |
| Intel 80386 | 1985 | 275,000 |
| Pentium 4 | 2000 | 42 million |
| Apple M1 | 2020 | 16 billion |
| NVIDIA Blackwell B200 | 2024 | 208 billion (two dies) |
Does it still hold?
The pace has slowed. Transistors are so small that we are hitting physical limits. Labels such as “3 nm” or “2 nm” are now more marketing names for generations. The industry looks for other paths: stacking chips, chiplets and specialised circuits for artificial intelligence.